HOW VLADIMIR PUTIN BECAME THE MOST POWERFUL LEADER IN THE WORLD TODAY

President Vladimir Putin is set to become the longest serving leader of Russia since the 18th century. I think Putin is both a powerful dictator and an aging autocrat. With unprecedented sanctions placed on the economy, no end in sight for the war in Ukraine and opposition being progressively silenced. Some would think his popularity would be declining. Putin was expected to be weakened, but both he and fortress Russia withstood beyond what many expected. So did the complete opposite happen? Is Putin more powerful than ever? Here are three reasons why this could indeed be the case. The invasion of Ukraine was expected internally to be swift and easy. Similar to the annexation of Crimea in 2014. I think Russian political leadership viewed this war in their imaginations. Something on the Crimea model only larger. Comparatively bloodless, triumphant and popular with the people. However, it became apparent that this wasn't going to happen and soon regular Russians were drafted into the military. When mobilization started, popularity of the special military operation declined. People were extremely scared. Russia and Ukraine have a complex and intertwined history. For centuries Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire and later the Soviet Union, where Russian language and culture were dominant. Many Ukrainians are Russian speakers and have relatives in Russia. The biggest problem with the war in Ukraine is that lots of people consider this war as a civil war. The civil war just by definition, is a very emotional war. So Putin needed to change the narrative inside Russia. It's not anymore the war in Ukraine. It is a war with the West. The West for Putin is embodied by Nato a military alliance of countries in Europe and North America. It was established by 12 countries at the beginning of the Cold War and now has 32 in its membership, including former Soviet states. Putin believes the Nato expansion poses a direct threat to Russia. When you present Ukraine war as a war with the West, it makes you feel proud because you actually stood up to the whole world and your army is still there, still fighting. Support for the war has remained consistently high in Russia. Partly because there aren't any independent polls and partly because not many ordinary people are feeling any direct consequences. Shortly after the invasion, the West reacted by placing unprecedented sanctions on Russia. They tried to suffocate Russia by freezing its foreign reserves. Almost half of it, or $300 billion, has been mobilized in the West. On one hand, the sanctions were intended as a way to decouple the West from a villain. On the other hand, they were meant to diminish Russia's ability to wage the illegal war in Europe. But the Russian economy held fast. As well as the frozen assets. Over a thousand companies reduced their operations or withdrew from Russia completely to stay in line with the sanctions. But Russia is a massive country with a lot of resources, and economists were stunned when its economy grew faster than those of the G7 in the years following the invasion of Ukraine. Other huge economies like China, India, Brazil are still very happy to trade with it. The main source of Russia's income hasn't been sanctioned by the West. Oil sanctions are decorative and its main source of income like grains, natural gas, nuclear fuels are not sanctioned by its biggest buyer, the EU Neighbouring countries like Kazakhstan, Armenia and Azerbaijan are also helping Russia evade sanctions. The practice of parallel trading means these countries import thousands of Western products like iPhones, BMW and even cans of Coke, and then sell them on at an inflated price in Russia. Russians are more or less used to rising prices, but our main national fear is empty shelves. Ultimately, the sanctions were not felt by the majority of the Russian population who could still buy food in the supermarkets and still withdraw money from their accounts. So the Russian economy under sanctions is functioning relatively well. This is making Putin more popular? Well, yes, in a way, because he and his propaganda portray him as someone who will fight the West in his major assault on Russian economy, which stood despite everything. Russia's economy is growing. The quality of this growth is doubtful and questionable because it stems from producing weapons and firing them at the Ukrainians. This kind of GDP growth looks nice on paper, but doesn't necessarily help ordinary Russians. So why do so few Russians speak out against Putin's government? In 2022, the Kremlin clamped down on free speech with new censorship laws which prevented any criticism of the so-called special military operation in Ukraine. Just one of these offenses, known as discrediting the Russian army, is punishable by up to five years in prison. The new laws have created a culture of paranoia and fear in Russia, with people reporting one another for speaking out against Putin's government. He believes that he needs to do everything to suppress all kinds of dissent in the country, because the next revolution might start with a three girls just protesting on the streets. The Kremlin has also blocked or blacklisted many websites. Now the most dangerous content is generated inside the country. These days, it's not about some report on the BBC. It's about people who might witness something on the street and post it immediately and be shared by millions of people. Putin has also made significant efforts to control the media and access to information in Russia. Only three of the candidates appeared on the ballot in 2024 for Putin's re-election. They were all Kremlin approved, posing no real challenge to the president. He knows how to suppress political discussion in the country. And also he's really good at removing his political opponents. He either killed or sent to prison, all the people who might actually challenge him in power. Just a month before the 2024 election, Putin's fiercist critic, Alexei Navalny, died suddenly in an Arctic penal colony. The Kremlin denied allegations he was murdered by Russian authorities. Opposing or criticizing Putin has always been a risky move. Several other of his opponents have died in suspicious circumstances or been murdered. Shortly after an attempted mutiny in 2023, Wagner mercenary leader Yevegny Prigozhin died in a plane crash. It's very scary to live in a country where you have journalists killed, politicians and activists killed and imprisoned. It's very uncomfortable psychologically. So is Putin more powerful than ever? It's all a matter of perspective. And the perspective is one thing, that Putin's propaganda machine is very good at meddling. For example, after a terror attack on a Moscow concert hall in March 2024, Putin pointed the finger at Ukraine despite the Islamic State group claiming responsibility. I think the most important thing for him is to stay in power. He believes that he has his historic mission to save the country, and he's the only one who is capable of saving the country and to make it great. After changing the constitution, Putin could potentially stay in power until 2036. When he will be 83 years old. Retirement doesn't strike me as a possibility, but this person cannot live forever. But then, if not Putin, who else?

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